Bitcoin And Ethereum ETF Flows - Jan 9

Quick Recap From December 18th Post

• Ethereum ETF Flows:

  • Net positive flows every day since November 22, 2024.

  • Benefiting from reduced outflows in Grayscale’s ETHE product.

  • Growing institutional interest, signaling TradFi is getting more comfortable with Ethereum.

  • Bitwise Investments highlights Ethereum’s resurgence with a memo, "Ethereum: The Comeback Kid of 2025."

  • Rising prices are attracting more interest, supporting the "narrative follows price" concept.

• Bitcoin ETF Flows:

  • Consistently strong inflows, showcasing Bitcoin's continued dominance.

  • Multiple tailwinds include:

    • The "Michael Saylor/MSTR effect."

    • Favorable political and economic factors, including a new credit cycle and Bitcoin cycle post-halving.

    • Fair Value Accounting for Bitcoin (effective Dec 2024).

  • Bitcoin’s growing prominence as a global asset is positioning it to rival major companies like Google and Amazon.

• Conclusion:

  • Both ETH and BTC ETFs are now seeing daily positive net inflows, creating sustained demand.

  • TradFi professionals face greater risks by avoiding exposure to crypto, signaling a paradigm shift in institutional attitudes.

Full post here:

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Jan 9th Update

Recent Ethereum ETF Flows

See the data below from Farside:

Looking back over ~2 weeks ETH flows have been a bit more mixed than previous periods but still positive with $193.7M net inflows during this time.

What We’re Seeing:

The ETH ETFs struggled out of the gate but they closed the year with a lot of strength as you can see below with this post by the CEO of Bitwise Hunter Horsley:

Recent Bitcoin ETF Flows

See the data below from Farside:

Bitcoin has also had a bit more of a mixed ~ 2 weeks of flows, but still managed to accumulate $464.6M of net inflows.

What We’re Seeing:

A lot of the positive flows for this past period were bolstered by two big days by Blackrock and Fidelity. On January 3rd and January 6th just Blackrock and Fidelity clients accounted for $1.19B of net inflows alone.

Conclusion

As BTC and ETH ETFs gain more traction with traditional finance, they may become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations. The short-term macro outlook is currently uncertain, with the Federal Reserve struggling to maintain control over the yield curve while contending with fears of potential rising inflation. Once again, the Fed finds itself in a difficult position, a scenario that has become all too familiar.

Adding to the uncertainty is President-elect Donald Trump, whose recent actions have thrown the markets off balance. Markets thrive on predictable policy, but Trump’s recent rhetoric has been anything but predictable, including outlandish suggestions like acquiring Greenland, Panama, or Canada through economic or military force. This unpredictability is far from reassuring for investors.

Many had expected a rally leading up to the inauguration, followed by a "sell the news" event. However, the current dip ahead of the inauguration might serve as a much-needed cooling-off period. Once Trump takes office, the market will likely seek clarity on how much of his rhetoric was merely a performative negotiation tactic versus actual policy intentions.

Maybe this uncertainty is all part of the plan:

Just as I was about to hit send on this, news came in regarding DOJ clearance to sell $6.9B in BTC:

Apparently, this permission was granted on December 30th, and there’s speculation that the recent dip was due to people front-running this news. However, the BTC in question still appears to be in the DOJ wallet, as tagged on-chain. This suggests there may be additional BTC sell pressure for the market to absorb. With only six open market days left before DJT takes office, the timeline for this activity is limited.

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